The chances of something happening are always 50/50 and it’s ridiculous to think otherwise
Meteorologists don’t get it.
Math teachers don’t get it.
Vegas doesn’t get it.
An event will either happen or it won’t. It can or it can’t. Long shots are nonsense and percentages are worthless.
At the start of any season in any sport, some teams are given the best chances to win a championship, and some teams are given the worst. While there may be 32 NFL teams who compete for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, to say any one team has X:X odds of winning it are ludicrous. That team will win the Super Bowl, or they won’t.
There is a bowl containing 150 Skittles. There are 10 orange, 20 purple, 30 yellow, 40 green, and 50 red. The chances of you reaching into the bowl and picking a red Skittle are 50/50 – either you’ll get a red one or you won’t. If you eat that red Skittle and have 149 Skittles remaining, the chances of you picking an orange Skittle followed by a green followed by an orange followed by a yellow followed by a red are 50/50. Either you will pick an orange Skittle followed by a green followed by an orange followed by a yellow followed by a red, or you won’t.
If a meteorologist says there’s a 30% chance of cloud cover, it’s hogwash. It will either be cloudy or it won’t be. When he says it like that, there are two possible outcomes: Cloudy or not cloudy.
Unrelated, it’s also ridiculous for meteorologists to use the phrases “partly sunny” and “partly cloudy.” Use the terminology “mostly sunny” or “mostly cloudy” exclusively because no one understands what you mean otherwise.