The chances of something happening are always 50/50 and it’s ridiculous to think otherwise
Meteorologists don’t get it.
Math teachers don’t get it.
Vegas doesn’t get it.
An event will either happen or it won’t. It can or it can’t.
Long shots are nonsense and percentages are worthless.
At the start of any season in any sport, some teams are
given the best chances to win a championship, and some teams are given the
worst. While there may be 32 NFL teams who compete for the Vince Lombardi
Trophy, to say any one team has X:X odds of winning it are ludicrous. That team
will win the Super Bowl, or they won’t.
There is a bowl containing 150 Skittles. There are 10 orange,
20 purple, 30 yellow, 40 green, and 50 red. The chances of you reaching into
the bowl and picking a red Skittle are 50/50 – either you’ll get a red one or
you won’t. If you eat that red Skittle and have 149 Skittles remaining, the
chances of you picking an orange Skittle followed by a green followed by an
orange followed by a yellow followed by a red are 50/50. Either you will pick an
orange Skittle followed by a green followed by an orange followed by a yellow
followed by a red, or you won’t.
If a meteorologist says there’s a 30% chance of cloud cover,
it’s hogwash. It will either be cloudy or it won’t be. When he says it like
that, there are two possible outcomes: Cloudy or not cloudy.
Unrelated, it’s also ridiculous for meteorologists to use
the phrases “partly sunny” and “partly cloudy.” Use the terminology “mostly
sunny” or “mostly cloudy” exclusively because no one understands what you mean otherwise.